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Chapter 22: The Syrian Forge II: The Eagles from Khmeimim: Putin Intervenes

The summer of 2015 was a season of defeat. For Yazan, a conscript in the Syrian Arab Army, the war had devolved into a series of humiliating retreats. His unit, hollowed out by desertions and casualties, was losing ground to a mosaic of rebel factions. Their morale was shattered. Even President Assad, in a rare moment of public candor, had recently given a speech admitting to a "shortage of manpower," a speech that had spread through the ranks like a death sentence. It felt as if the regime, and their entire world, was on the brink of collapse.

Then, on September 30th, the sky changed. Yazan was hunkered down in a trench when he heard a new sound, a deep-throated roar that was different from the aging Syrian MiGs. The first jets came in high and fast, sleek and modern. They were not dropping crude barrel bombs; their strikes were things of terrible, violent precision. A rebel command post two kilometers away, which had harassed their position for months, simply vanished in a plume of smoke and fire. A rebel artillery piece on a nearby ridge was obliterated moments later.

A new confidence, hard and electric, surged through the ranks. The Russians were not just sending advisors. They were not just sending weapons. The eagles had arrived from Khmeimim, their new coastal fortress. They had put their thumb directly and decisively on the scales of the war. For the rebels, it was a moment of terror. For Yazan, and for the entire Syrian Arab Army, it was a moment of brutal, violent salvation. The war was not over, but it was no longer a war they were certain to lose.

The Discourse 22: An Intervention by Invitation

22.1 Saving a Client on the Brink of Collapse
By the summer of 2015, the Assad regime was perilously close to defeat. Its forces were overstretched, its manpower depleted, and it was losing significant territory on multiple fronts. In a televised speech in July 2015, Bashar al-Assad himself admitted that his army faced a "shortage of human resources" and had been forced to give up territory to protect more vital areas. [CITATION 1] It was this dire situation that prompted the Kremlin's decision to launch a direct military intervention, transforming a long-standing political alliance into a full-blown military one.

22.2 The Official Pretext: Fighting Terrorism
Russia's officially stated goal, both to its domestic audience and at the United Nations, was to assist the legitimate Syrian government in its fight against terrorist groups, primarily the Islamic State (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda affiliates like Jabhat al-Nusra. [CITATION 2] While Russian airstrikes did target these groups, analysis of their early operations showed that the vast majority of strikes were directed at the more moderate, Western-backed rebel groups who posed the most immediate threat to the survival of the Assad regime in strategically vital areas like Latakia, Homs, and Aleppo.

22.3 The Real Strategic Objectives: Power and Ports
The true motivations for the intervention were cold, geopolitical, and went far beyond the Assad regime itself. They were threefold:

• Secure a Fortress: Russia's primary objective was to secure and expand its only military foothold on the Mediterranean Sea: the naval tartus facility at Tartus. The intervention allowed it to transform this minor Soviet-era repair station into a full-fledged naval base, and to establish the sprawling, permanent airbase at Khmeimim, guaranteeing its ability to project power across the Middle East and Southern Europe for decades to come.

• Project Global Power: The intervention was a powerful, global advertisement for Putin's Russia. It signaled to autocrats everywhere that Russia was a decisive, loyal, and effective ally, a stark contrast to a seemingly hesitant and risk-averse West. It re-established Russia as an indispensable power broker in the Middle East. [CITATION 3]

• A Laboratory of War: The Syrian conflict provided Russia with an invaluable, low-cost opportunity to test its modernized military in a live-fire combat environment. [CITATION 4] Russia used Syria as a proving ground for new weapon systems (such as Kalibr cruise missiles), electronic warfare capabilities, coordination between airpower and special forces, and the operational tactics of its private mercenary armies. It was, in effect, a full-dress rehearsal for future conflicts.

References

1. Heller, Sam. "A bombs of 'double-tap' strikes is haunting civilians - and the medics attempting to save them." The Daily Beast, October 21, 2016. https://www.thedailybeast.com/a-rain-of-bombs-of-double-tap-strikes-is-haunting-civiliansand-the-medics-attempting-to-save-them

2. Physicians for Human Rights. "Aleppo Abandoned: A Case Study on Health Care in Syria." Report, February 2017. https://phr.org/reports/aleppo-abandoned-a-case-study-on-health-care-in-syria/

3. United Nations. "Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic." A/HRC/34/64, 2 February 2017.

4. Kofman, Michael, and Matthew Rojansky. "What Kind of Victory for Russia in Syria?" Military Review, March-April 2018. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/March-April-2018/Kofman-Syria/